As global geopolitics continue to evolve at a rapid pace, regional cooperation platforms like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are gaining increasing relevance. In this context, the Prime Minister’s likely visit to China for the upcoming SCO summit is not just a diplomatic formality, but a move layered with strategic significance.
The SCO summit, expected to be held in October 2025 in China, will bring together leaders from eight member states—including China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—as well as key observers and dialogue partners. It presents a critical opportunity for member nations to engage in dialogue on regional security, economic cooperation, connectivity, and counter-terrorism. The potential presence of the Indian Prime Minister adds an additional layer of attention, especially given the complex dynamics between India and China in recent years.
Re-engagement Amid Tensions
India’s relationship with China has remained tense following the border standoff in Ladakh that began in 2020. Diplomatic and military-level talks have somewhat stabilized the situation, but the trust deficit continues. In such a context, a visit by the Indian Prime Minister to China would mark the first bilateral presence on Chinese soil since the standoff, signaling a possible thaw or at least a willingness to maintain diplomatic channels.
While the SCO platform is multilateral, side meetings between heads of state are common. The Prime Minister’s participation may pave the way for a brief but significant bilateral exchange with Chinese President Xi Jinping. If it happens, this would be closely watched for any signs of progress in de-escalation, border management, and trade normalization.
Strategic Objectives
India’s participation in the SCO summit aligns with its broader foreign policy goals. As a member state since 2017, India has increasingly used the platform to voice its concerns on terrorism, connectivity, and regional stability. The Prime Minister’s presence would reinforce India’s commitment to these themes, while also serving as a counterbalance to narratives driven by China and Russia within the grouping.
Moreover, India has often raised concerns about China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs through disputed territory in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. While India continues to boycott projects related to the BRI, its presence at the summit allows it to engage constructively on other issues without compromising its position.
A Balancing Act
India’s foreign policy has consistently emphasized strategic autonomy. While strengthening its ties with the West through forums like the Quad and its growing economic alignment with the U.S. and European Union, India has also maintained strong relations with Russia and its Central Asian neighbors. The SCO provides a valuable platform to balance these relations.
The visit also comes at a time when Russia is leaning more heavily towards China due to Western sanctions and its ongoing conflict in Ukraine. India, meanwhile, continues to purchase Russian energy and defense equipment while also advocating for a multipolar world order. This careful balancing act reflects India’s intent to act as a bridge between conflicting blocs.
Economic and Regional Connectivity
One of the key focus areas of the SCO summit is likely to be economic integration and connectivity in the Eurasian region. For India, projects like the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar Port in Iran are vital for accessing Central Asian markets while bypassing Pakistan.
The summit will likely witness discussions around regional trade, digital cooperation, and sustainable development. India is expected to push for transparent and inclusive connectivity projects, stressing the need for respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity—a veiled reference to its opposition to the BRI.
Counter-Terrorism and Security Dialogue
Security remains a core pillar of the SCO. India has consistently used this platform to highlight the threat of cross-border terrorism, particularly emanating from Pakistan. The Prime Minister is expected to reiterate India’s call for a zero-tolerance approach to terrorism in all its forms. Cooperation on drug trafficking, cyber security, and radicalization is also likely to be discussed.
India’s active participation in the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) under the SCO framework will feature prominently, as it continues to advocate for enhanced intelligence sharing and capacity-building among member states.
Conclusion
The Prime Minister’s likely visit to China for the SCO summit is more than a routine engagement; it is a calculated diplomatic step at a time of shifting alliances and regional challenges. By participating in the summit, India reinforces its commitment to multilateralism, regional stability, and constructive dialogue—even with adversaries.
While expectations of a breakthrough in India-China relations may be tempered, the very act of showing up signals a maturity in diplomacy that values dialogue over disengagement. As the world watches closely, the summit may offer subtle cues about the direction of Asian geopolitics in the years ahead.